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Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression
dc.contributor.author | Claveria, Oscar |
dc.contributor.author | Monte Moreno, Enrique |
dc.contributor.author | Torra Porras, Salvador |
dc.contributor.other | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-02-15T14:06:00Z |
dc.date.available | 2018-02-24T01:30:15Z |
dc.date.issued | 2016-12-16 |
dc.identifier.citation | Claveria, O., Monte, E., Torra Porras, S. Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression. "Applied economics letters", 16 Desembre 2016, vol. 24, núm. 9, p. 648-652. |
dc.identifier.issn | 1350-4851 |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/101084 |
dc.description.abstract | Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany. |
dc.format.extent | 5 p. |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Macroeconomia::Finances |
dc.subject.lcsh | Financial crisis |
dc.subject.lcsh | Economic forecasting |
dc.subject.lcsh | Genetic algorithms |
dc.subject.other | Symbolic regression |
dc.subject.other | Evolutionary algorithms |
dc.subject.other | Genetic programming |
dc.subject.other | Tendency surveys |
dc.subject.other | Expectations |
dc.subject.other | Forecasting |
dc.title | Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression |
dc.type | Article |
dc.subject.lemac | Crisis financeres |
dc.subject.lemac | Previsió econòmica |
dc.subject.lemac | Algorismes genètics |
dc.contributor.group | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419 |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed |
dc.relation.publisherversion | http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rael20 |
dc.rights.access | Open Access |
local.identifier.drac | 19701331 |
dc.description.version | Postprint (author's final draft) |
local.citation.author | Claveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra Porras, S. |
local.citation.publicationName | Applied economics letters |
local.citation.volume | 24 |
local.citation.number | 9 |
local.citation.startingPage | 648 |
local.citation.endingPage | 652 |
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