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Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth
dc.contributor.author | Prodhomme, Chloé |
dc.contributor.author | Batté, L. |
dc.contributor.author | Massonnet, François |
dc.contributor.author | Davini, P. |
dc.contributor.author | Bellprat, Omar |
dc.contributor.author | Guemas, Virginie |
dc.contributor.author | Doblas-Reyes, Francisco |
dc.contributor.other | Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-01-27T09:29:49Z |
dc.date.available | 2017-06-06T00:30:16Z |
dc.date.issued | 2016-12-05 |
dc.identifier.citation | Prodhomme, Chloé [et al.]. Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth. "Journal of Climate", 5 Desembre 2016, vol. 29, p. 9141-9162. |
dc.identifier.issn | 0894-8755 |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/100174 |
dc.description.abstract | Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community model EC-Earth in three configurations: standard resolution (~1° and ~60 km in the ocean and atmosphere models, respectively), intermediate resolution (~0.25° and ~60 km), and high resolution (~0.25° and ~39 km), the two latter configurations being used without any specific tuning. The model systematic biases of 2-m temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed are generally reduced. Notably, the tropical Pacific cold tongue bias is significantly reduced, the Somali upwelling is better represented, and excessive precipitation over the Indian Ocean and over the Maritime Continent is decreased. In terms of skill, tropical SSTs and precipitation are better reforecasted in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans at higher resolutions. In particular, the Indian monsoon is better predicted. Improvements are more difficult to detect at middle and high latitudes. Still, a slight improvement is found in the prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) along with a more realistic representation of atmospheric blocking. The sea ice extent bias is unchanged, but the skill of the reforecasts increases in some cases, such as in summer for the pan-Arctic sea ice. All these results emphasize the idea that the resolution increase is an essential feature for forecast system development. At the same time, resolution alone cannot tackle all the forecast system deficiencies and will have to be implemented alongside new physical improvements to significantly push the boundaries of seasonal prediction. |
dc.description.sponsorship | The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme FP7 (2007–2013) under Grant Agreements 308378 (SPECS), 603521 (PREFACE), and 607085 (EUCLEIA), the Horizon 2020 EU program under Grant Agreements 641727 (PRIMAVERA) and 641811 (IMPREX), and the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Living Planet Fellowship VERITAS-CCI. We acknowledge PRACE for awarding access to Marenostrum3 based in Spain at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center through the HiResClim project. We acknowledge the work of the developers of the s2dverification R-based package (http://cran.r-project. org/web/packages/s2dverification/index.html) and autosubmit workflow manager (https://pypi.python.org/ pypi/autosubmit/3.5.0). Paolo Davini acknowledges the funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme COGNAC under the European Union Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 654942. |
dc.format.extent | 21 p. |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.publisher | American Meteorological Society |
dc.rights | Copyright [date of publication] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to the AMS Permissions Officer at permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation). |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
dc.subject.lcsh | Forecasting--Computer simulation |
dc.subject.lcsh | Climate--Research |
dc.subject.other | Bias |
dc.subject.other | Forecast verification/skill |
dc.subject.other | Seasonal forecasting |
dc.subject.other | Coupled models |
dc.title | Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth |
dc.type | Article |
dc.subject.lemac | Clima--Observacions |
dc.subject.lemac | Previsió del temps |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1 |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed |
dc.relation.publisherversion | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1 |
dc.rights.access | Open Access |
dc.description.version | Postprint (published version) |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641727/EU/PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment/PRIMAVERA |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641811/EU/IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes/IMPREX |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/654942/EU/Readdressing Convective-Surface Interaction in Global Climate Models/COGNAC |
local.citation.publicationName | Journal of Climate |
local.citation.volume | 29 |
local.citation.startingPage | 9141 |
local.citation.endingPage | 9162 |
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