On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
Visualitza/Obre
Estadístiques de LA Referencia / Recolecta
Inclou dades d'ús des de 2022
Cita com:
hdl:2099/11242
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2010
EditorInstitut d'Estadística de Catalunya
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
Llevat que s'hi indiqui el contrari, els
continguts d'aquesta obra estan subjectes a la llicència de Creative Commons
:
Reconeixement-NoComercial-SenseObraDerivada 3.0 Espanya
Abstract
We consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer
League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying
in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this
specific problem and how to approach it after reading that some soccer coaches indicate that a
team in the first division guarantees its staying in that division if it has a total of 42 points at the
end of the regular season. This problem differs from the typical probability estimation problem
because we only know the actual cumulative score a given team has at some point during the
regular season. Under this setting a series of different assumptions can be made to predict the
probability of interest at the end of the season. We describe the specific theoretical probability
model using the multinomial distribution and, then, introduce two approximations to compute the
probability of interest, as well as the exact method. The different proposed methods are then
evaluated and also applied to the example that motivated them. One interesting result is that the
predicted probabilities can then be dynamically evaluated by using data from the current soccer
competition.
CitacióDíaz-Emparanza, Ignacio; Núñez-Antón, Vicente. On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league. "SORT", vol. 34, núm. 2, p. 181-200.
ISSN1696-2281
Fitxers | Descripció | Mida | Format | Visualitza |
---|---|---|---|---|
294523.pdf | 158,6Kb | Visualitza/Obre |