Backcasting for sustainable development : building a future view

Abstract

Backcasting is an instrument to develop a path towards a realistic desirable future for a given theme (e.g. sustainable agriculture, sustainable food etc). It involves the following steps: problem definition, establishment of terms of reference for solutions (here, in relation to sustainability and to functionality), brief description of some future views, selection/construction of a final future view, establishment of backcasting steps (working backwards from the future view).

As part of the talk, the "selection of relevant future trends" will be discussed. This involves making an inventory of trends relevant to the theme and categorising them graphically with respect to probability and impact. Taking such steps allows the most probable scenarios to be taken into account when establishing future views.