Assessment of the Effect of Intermittent Renewable Power Production on Future Power Systems

Abstract

An investigation was carried out into the effect of stochastically intermittent power production, from technologies harnessing wind and solar power, on future power systems. A brief overview of current research in the field brings together the essential points for analysis. An investigation into the technologies that may allow future power systems to handle this technology has also been included in this study. The basis for the analysis was calculating the demand profile for flexible plants or net demand profile. This was accomplished by calculating projected future power production of wind and solar technologies and subtracting this from a projected gross demand profile. The analysis of a load duration curve, or a plot of load over the year sorted by magnitude, was undertaken. The investigation of the load duration curve for the years 2020, 2025 and 2035, for demand and net demand in Germany, highlighted the impact of intermittent production. This was also compared to other existing studies. The effect of a storage model on the net demand allowed for the development of some understanding of the future impact of this type of technology. A storage model of a generic technology that could act over periods of 6, 24 and 168 hours was developed. The uncertainties associated with the investigation were discussed and conclusions were made on the results. Recommendations were made for future work in this field.