Predicting municipal solid waste generation in Andorra with system dynamics modelling

Abstract

Waste management is becoming a central point on public policies due to its economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, prediction of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation is an important issue both for public service planning (such as waste collection services, infrastructures and MSW treatment facilities) and for assessing society sustainability. Conventional forecasting of MSW generation frequently uses demographic and socioeconomic factors in a per-capita basis1,2. However, this approach is not reliable in all situations. In this way, in highly impacted touristic areas MSW generation could be variable, highly influenced on tourist flows and not only on the town inhabitants 3. In this work, we developed a system dynamic model to predict the MSW generation of Andorra, a small Pyrenean country, where the touristic activity is one of the main basis of its economy. Therefore, our model, will be built using the available MSW and socioeconomic data time series integrating tourist flow information in order to account to the country economic specificity. The developed prediction tool should be useful for both Andorra public services and private waste management companies as they will be able to plan needed investments on a much more solid basis. Furthermore, similar models should be useful in predicting MSW generation in other touristic areas.