Evaluation of modelling systems in high resolution to assess the air pollutant impacts on human health

Abstract

Nowadays the modelling of systems in high resolution is being used for air quality and other forecasting applications, where a spatial area is related with different interrelated variables that could be displayed on a map. This area is usually represented by global domains (hundred to thousand of square km); when smaller regions need to be represented, a high resolution modelling system can be used, these systems goes from one square km to dozen of square km, health is one of these issues where this kind of resolution can be used. In Europe, Asia, North America, South America and other countries, health problems related with the air pollution and climate change is a concern for individuals and world organizations like the WHO; today studies show the relation between morbidity and mortality rates, air pollution and effects on human health; these modelling systems in high resolution help us to simulate scenarios and propose solutions to this problematic. So the objective of this work is to evaluate the system performance WRF – CMAQ and CALIOPE on high resolution (4 km x 4 km) to determine air pollutant impacts of PM10, PM2.5, Ozone, NO2 and SO2 on population, using BenMAP for assess impact on health. The methodology suggested is the time series analysis of two years of hospital admissions, morbidity and mortality rates and the air quality forecasting of the cities selected, previously modelled in WRF, CMAQ and CALIOPE; after that, the Response Functions (DRF/ERF) to determine the impacts on health and the BenMAP software will be used. It is expecting find the scenarios that could decrease the mortality and morbidity rates in diseases like lung cancer, chronic respiratory obstructive disease, asthma, and the acute respiratory diseases in adults and children under ten years old.