The accuracy and efficiency of the efficient time simulation procedure in derivation of the 100-year responses
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Abstract
Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment
and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is
required for their safe and economical design. To this end, the conventional (Monte Carlo) time
simulation technique (CTS) is frequently used for predicting the probability distribution of the
extreme values of response. However, this technique suffers from excessive sampling variability and
hence a large number of simulated extreme responses (hundreds of simulated response records) are
required to reduce the sampling variability to acceptable levels. In this paper, three different
versions of a more efficient time simulation technique (ETS) are compared by exposing a
test structure to sea states of different intensity. The three different versions of the ETS
technique take advantage of the good correlation between extreme responses and their
corresponding surface elevation extreme values, or quasi-static and dynamic linear extreme
responses. The accuracy and efficiency of an alternative technique in
comparison with the conventional simulation technique is investigated.

