This article presents a mathematical model aimed at predicting wheel–rail contact vibration force arising from wheel profile irregularities. Prediction of vibrations caused by a passing train is a basic factor in environmental impact studies related to planning new railway lines. The prediction model is useful during the development of a project as it facilitates selection of the most suitable track for reducing vibration levels. This article presents the model, analyses the influence of the track base on the vibration-generating mechanisms, and compares the dynamic behaviour of the most widely used urban railway tracks.