Detection of abnormal photovoltaic systems’ operation with minimum data requirements based on Recursive Least Squares algorithms

Abstract

In the last years, the massive deployment of new photovoltaic (PV) power plants has launched the connection of PV inverters to the electrical network. A single medium-sized ground-mounted PV plant may have thousands of these inverters linked to the grid and even more PV panels on the DC side. Upon reaching such a substantial magnitude of devices involved in grid-connected installations, the effective operation, management, predictive maintenance, and fault detection becomes increasingly challenging without integrating advanced prediction and automated anomaly detection systems. Artificial intelligence algorithms, grounded in data measurements, can be pivotal in addressing this challenge. This paper proposes several regression-based methods to predict PV plants’ energy generation, which is useful for detecting transient and long-term anomalies. These models are trained using a Recursive Least Squares (RLS) method and require a minimum number of variables to yield satisfactory outcomes, which is one of the paper’s contributions. They mainly rely on energy generation measurements and geolocation. Within the scope of this research, two distinct algorithms have been implemented and validated. The first algorithm, a simplified model, is engineered to analyze the daily efficiency variation, prioritizing the identification of faults and abnormal operational profiles in PV plants. On the other hand, the second algorithm adopts a more intricate model tailored to facilitate long-term diagnosis, enabling the assessment of PV efficiency degradation. In this work, both algorithms are described and their performance is validated using the historical data from more than 20 PV plants placed in different climatic regions.