Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records

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The HadEX-CAM dataset for the TX90p, TN90p, TX10p, and TN10p indices as well as their reconstructions using IDW, Kriging, CRAI and diffusion models are available under the Open Government Licence (http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/) and the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12819445. The raw data used to create the HadEX-CAM dataset is not publicly available as it includes third-party data that are protected and cannot be shared due to privacy restrictions. However, some station data are available at https://www.climdex.org/access/. The CMIP6 and reanalysis data used to compute the extreme indices are publicly available: CMIP6, ERA5, 20CRv3.
The code used to produce the CRAI reconstructions is available at https://github.com/FREVA-CLINT/climatereconstructionAI under BSD-3-Clause license. The version v1.0.3 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6475860) has been used for this study.

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The understanding of recent climate extremes and the characterization of climate risk require examining these extremes within a historical context. However, the existing datasets of observed extremes generally exhibit spatial gaps and inaccuracies due to inadequate spatial extrapolation. This problem arises from traditional statistical methods used to account for the lack of measurements, particularly prevalent before the mid-20th century. In this work, we use artificial intelligence to reconstruct observations of European climate extremes (warm and cold days and nights) by leveraging Earth system model data from CMIP6 through transfer learning. Our method surpasses conventional statistical techniques and diffusion models, showcasing its ability to reconstruct past extreme events and reveal spatial trends across an extensive time span (1901-2018) that is not covered by most reanalysis datasets. Providing our dataset to the climate community will improve the characterization of climate extremes, resulting in better risk management and policies.

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Plésiat, É. [et al.]. Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records. "Nature Communications", Octubre 2024, vol. 15, 9191.

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2041-1723

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