The aim of this article is to provide a scientific and statistical basis to identify the murder weapon in stabbing cases from the geometric characteristics of the stab-marks left on human ribs. For this purpose, a quantitative predictive model is developed, based on geometric measurements of the stab-mark and its location along the rib. A general method based on Bayesian inference and probabilities is used for the model development, rather than a deterministic model given its inability in certain occasions to identify the murder weapon. Following the process explained in this article to collect the stab-mark information required, the complete probabilistic model exposed attained a high accuracy in the identification of the murder weapon between two macroscopically identical blades with a microscopic alteration in one of them (more than 90% of correct identification is achieved).