Now showing items 1-10 of 10

    • A global probabilistic dataset for monitoring meteorological droughts 

      Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Donat, Markus; Toreti, Andrea; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      DROP is a global land dataset to monitor meteorological drought that gathers an ensemble of observation-based datasets providing near-real time estimates with associated uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. Accurate ...
    • Bias correction and downscaling of future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-Analog technique 

      Turco, Marco; Llasat, Maria C.; Herrera, Sixto; Gutiérrez, José Manuel (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017-03-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this study we assess the suitability of a recently introduced analog-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) downscaling method (referred to as MOS-Analog) for climate change studies and compare the results with a quantile ...
    • Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain 

      Cortés Simo, María; Turco, Marco; Ward, Philip J.; Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Llasat Botija, Carmen (2019-12-18)
      Article
      Open Access
      Flooding is one of the main natural hazards in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because of its large vulnerability ...
    • Climate drivers of the 2017 devastating fires in Portugal 

      Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Augusto, Sofia; Tarín Carrasco, Patricia; Ratola, Nuno; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M. (Springer Nature, 2019)
      Article
      Open Access
      A record 500,000 hectares burned in Portugal during the extreme wildfire season of 2017, with more than 120 human lives lost. Here we analyse the climatic factors responsible for the burned area (BA) from June to October ...
    • Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast 

      Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Nature Publishing Group, 2018-01-22)
      Article
      Open Access
      Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the ...
    • On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe 

      Turco, Marco; Hardenberg, Jost von; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria C.; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M. (Nature Publishing Group, 2017-03-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are ...
    • Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions 

      Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello (Nature Publishing Group, 2018-07-13)
      Article
      Open Access
      Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation ...
    • Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts 

      Turco, Marco; Ceglar, Andrej; Prodhomme, Chloé; Soret, Albert; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2017-07-27)
      Article
      Open Access
      Seasonal climate forecasts could be an important planning tool for farmers, government and insurance companies that can lead to better and timely management of seasonal climate risks. However, climate seasonal forecasts ...
    • Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia 

      Llasat, Maria C.; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat (Elsevier, 2016-10-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their ...
    • Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs — A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean 

      Marcos, Raül; Llasat, Mª Carmen; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco (Elsevier, 2018-01-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir ...