Browsing by Author "Torra Porras, Salvador"
Now showing items 1-20 of 21
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A data-driven approach to construct survey-based indicators by means of evolutionary algorithms
(2016-11-09)
Article
Open AccessIn this paper we propose a data-driven approach for the construction of survey-based indicators using large data sets. We make use of agents’ expectations about a wide range of economic variables contained in the World ... -
A data-driven approach to construct survey-based indicators by means of evolutionary algorithms
(2018-01-09)
Article
Open AccessIn this paper we propose a data-driven approach for the construction of survey-based indicators using large data sets. We make use of agents’ expectations about a wide range of economic variables contained in the World ... -
A geometric proxy of economic uncertainty based on the disagreement in survey expectations
(2018)
Conference lecture
Open AccessIn this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based ... -
A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations
(2016-09-24)
Article
Open AccessIn this study a new approach to quantify qualitative survey data about the direction of change is presented. We propose a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation that avoids making any assumption about ... -
A new forecasting approach for the hospitality industry
(2015-10-01)
Article
Open AccessPurpose – This study aims to apply a new forecasting approach to improve predictions in the hospitality industry. To do so, the authors developed a multivariate setting that allows the incorporation of the cross-correlations ... -
Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression
(2016-12-16)
Article
Open AccessAgents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 ... -
Data pre-processing for neural network-based forecasting: does it really matter?
(2015-11-04)
Article
Open AccessThis study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the forecasting performance of neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to predict tourist demand: multi-layer ... -
Economic uncertainty: a geometric indicator of discrepancy among experts’ expectations
(2018-01-01)
Article
Open AccessIn this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents’ expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based ... -
Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions
(2018-01-09)
Article
Open AccessIn this study we use agents’ expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in twenty-six European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and ... -
Evolutionary computation for macroeconomic forecasting
(2017-11-07)
Article
Open AccessThe main objective of this study is twofold. First, we propose an empirical modelling approach based on genetic programming to forecast economic growth by means of survey data on expectations. We use evolutionary algorithms ... -
Extraction of the underlying structure of systematic risk from non-Gaussian multivariate financial time series using independent component analysis: Evidence from the Mexican stock exchange
(2018-01-01)
Article
Open AccessRegarding the problems related to multivariate non-Gaussianity of financial time series, i.e., unreliable results in extraction of underlying risk factors -via Principal Component Analysis or Factor Analysis-, we use ... -
Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model
(2016-08-16)
Article
Open AccessThis study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and ... -
Modelling tourism demand to Spain with machine learning techniques. The impact of forecast horizon on model selection
(2016-12-01)
Article
Open AccessThis study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recastaccuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) ... -
Neural networks principal component analysis for estimating the generative multifactor model of returns under a statistical approach to the arbitrage pricing theory: Evidence from the mexican stock exchange
(2019-01-01)
Article
Open AccessA nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) represents an extension of the standard principal component analysis (PCA) that overcomes the limitation of the PCA’s assumption about the linearity of the model. The NLPCA ... -
Quantification of survey expectations by means of symbolic regression via genetic programming to estimate economic growth in central and eastern european economies
(2016-03-21)
Article
Open AccessTendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. This study has a twofold aim. First, it proposes a new method to quantify survey-based expectations by means of symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming. ... -
The appraisal of machine learning techniques for tourism demand forecasting
(Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2017-11-03)
Part of book or chapter of book
Restricted access - publisher's policyMachine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly used with forecasting purposes. This study assesses the predictive performance of several ML models in a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) setting that allows ... -
Tourism demand forecasting with neural network models: different ways of treating information
(2014-07-21)
Article
Restricted access - publisher's policyThis paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that ... -
Tourism demand forecasting with neural network models: different ways of treating information
(John Wiley & Sons, 2014-07-21)
Article
Restricted access - publisher's policyThis paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that ... -
Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: a two-step approach
(2018-10-09)
External research report
Open AccessThe main objective of this study is to present a two-step approach to generate estimates of economic growth based on agents’ expectations from tendency surveys. First, we design a genetic programming experiment to derive ... -
Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news
(2019-10-01)
Article
Restricted access - publisher's policyIn this study, we evaluate the effect of news on consumer unemployment expectations for sixteen socio-demographic groups. To this end, we construct an unemployment sentiment indicator and extract news about several economic ...
