In this paper we propose a data-driven approach for the construction of survey-based indicators using large data sets. We make use of agents’ expectations about a wide range of economic variables contained in the World ...

In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based ...

Purpose – This study aims to apply a new forecasting approach to improve predictions in the hospitality industry. To do so, the authors developed a multivariate setting that allows the incorporation of the cross-correlations ...

This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the forecasting performance of neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to predict tourist demand: multi-layer ...

In this study we use agents’ expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in twenty-six European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and ...

This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and ...

A nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) represents an extension of the standard principal component analysis (PCA) that overcomes the limitation of the PCA’s assumption about the linearity of the model. The NLPCA ...

Machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly used with forecasting purposes. This study assesses the predictive performance of several ML models in a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) setting that allows ...

This paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that ...

In this study, we evaluate the effect of news on consumer unemployment expectations for sixteen socio-demographic groups. To this end, we construct an unemployment sentiment indicator and extract news about several economic ...