Browsing by Author "Smith, Doug"

Now showing items 1-5 of 5

    • Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill 

      Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Ortega, Pablo; Batté, Lauriane; Smith, Doug; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Sicardi, Valentina; Torralba, Veronica; Tourigny, Etienne; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020-02-28)
      Article
      Open Access
      Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using ...

    • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply 

      Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Athanasiadis, P.; Bellucci, A.; Bethke, Ingo; Bilbao, Roberto; Borchert, Leonard F.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Counillon, F.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, Thomas; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Estella-Perez, V.; Flavoni, S.; Hermanson, Leon; Keenlyside, Noel; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, Juliette; Mochizuki, T.; Modali, K.; Monerie, P.-A.; Müller, W.A.; Nicolí, Dario; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pankatz, K.; Pohlmann, H.; Robson, Jon; Ruggieri, P.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Swingedouw, Didier; Wang, Yiguo; Wild, Simon; Yeager, Stephen; Yang, Xiaosong; Liping, Zhang (Springer Nature, 2020-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...

    • Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts 

      Batté, Laurianne; Välisuo, Ilona; Chevallier, Matthieu; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Smith, Doug (Springer Link, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this study, the forecast quality of 1993–2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service ...

    • The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions 

      Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan; Smith, Doug; Yeager, Stephen; Merryfield, William; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Glanville, Anne A. (Springer, 2022)
      Article
      Open Access
      In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are ...

    • WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir (American Meteorological Society, 2022-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...