Browsing by Author "Hermanson, Leon"

Now showing items 1-7 of 7

    • How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity? 

      Caron, Louis-Philippe; Hermanson, Leon; Dobbin, Alison; Imbers, Jara; Lledó, Llorenç; Vecchi, Gabriel A. (American Meteorological Society, 2018-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development ...

    • Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Athanasiadis, Panos; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Ho, An-Chi; Samsó, Margarida (Copernicus Publications, 2024)
      Article
      Open Access
      In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales ...

    • Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre 

      Polkova, Iuliia; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Koehl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Bilbao, Roberto (Frontiers Media, 2023)
      Article
      Open Access
      Due to large northward transports of heat, the Atlantic Ocean circulation is strongly affecting the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, ...

    • Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study 

      Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Robson, Jon I.; Menary, Matthew; Sutton, Rowan T.; Blaker, Adam; Germe, Agathe; Hirschi, Jöel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Hermanson, Leon; Yeager, Stephen (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced ...

    • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply 

      Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Athanasiadis, P.; Bellucci, A.; Bethke, Ingo; Bilbao, Roberto; Borchert, Leonard F.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Counillon, F.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, Thomas; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Estella-Perez, V.; Flavoni, S.; Hermanson, Leon; Keenlyside, Noel; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, Juliette; Mochizuki, T.; Modali, K.; Monerie, P.-A.; Müller, W.A.; Nicolí, Dario; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pankatz, K.; Pohlmann, H.; Robson, Jon; Ruggieri, P.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Swingedouw, Didier; Wang, Yiguo; Wild, Simon; Yeager, Stephen; Yang, Xiaosong; Liping, Zhang (Springer Nature, 2020-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...

    • Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems 

      Hermanson, Leon; Bilbao, Roberto; Dunstone, Nick; Ménégoz, Martin; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pohlmann, Holger; Robson, Jon I; Smith, Doug M.; Strand, Gary; Timmreck, Claudia; Yeager, Steve; Danabasoglu, Gokhan (Wiley, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and ...

    • WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir (American Meteorological Society, 2022-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...