Now showing items 1-16 of 16

  • An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean 

    Cruz-García, Rubén; Guemas, Virginie; Chevallier, Matthieu; Massonnet, François (Springer, 2019-07)
    Article
    Restricted access - publisher's policy
    Arctic sea ice plays a central role in the Earth’s climate. Changes in the sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales impact ecosystems, populations and a growing number of stakeholders. A prerequisite for achieving ...
  • An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean 

    Cruz-García, Rubén; Guemas, Virginie; Chevallier, Matthieu; Massonnet, François (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2018-04-24)
    Conference report
    Open Access
  • Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth 

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Batté, L.; Massonnet, François; Davini, P.; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-05)
    Article
    Open Access
    Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community ...
  • Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state 

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. (Springer Verlag, 2017-08)
    Article
    Open Access
    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is ...
  • Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach 

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K. (Springer International Publishing, 2016-06-04)
    Article
    Open Access
    In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next ...
  • Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability 

    Fuckar, Neven; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2019-03)
    Article
    Open Access
    This study explores the prediction skill of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice thickness (SIT) modes of variability in a state-of-the-art coupled forecast system with respect to two statistical forecast benchmarks. ...
  • Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 

    Ménégoz, Martin; Bilbao, Roberto; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. (IOP Publishing, 2018-06-06)
    Article
    Open Access
    The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western ...
  • High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 

    Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier L.; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fuckar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; Hardenberg, Jost von; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jing-Song (European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-11-22)
    Article
    Open Access
    Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal ...
  • Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate 

    García-Serrano, Javier; Frankignoul, C.; King, M.P.; Arribas, A.; Gao, Y.; Guemas, Virginie; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Park, W.; Sanchez-Gomenez, E. (Springer, 2017-10)
    Article
    Open Access
    A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously ...
  • Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability 

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, Virginie; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, Chloe (Springer, 2017-12-01)
    Article
    Open Access
    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. ...
  • Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe 

    Mishra, Niti; Prodhomme, Chloé; Guemas, Virginie (Springer Verlag, 2018-08-31)
    Article
    Restricted access - publisher's policy
    There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely ...
  • Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur 

    Calbo Angrill, Josep; Gonçalves Ageitos, María; Barrera Escoda, Antoni; García Serrano, Javier; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Guemas, Virginie; Cunillera i Grañó, Jordi; Altava Ortiz, Vicent (Institut d'Estudis Catalans (IEC) / Generalitat de Catalunya, 2016-09)
    Part of book or chapter of book
    Open Access
    Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall ...
  • Record low northern hemisphere sea ice extent in March 2015 

    Fuckar, Neven S.; Massonnet, François; Guemas, Virginie; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Omar, Bellprat; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Acosta, Mario (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-01)
    Article
    Open Access
    The record low Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter sea ice maximum stemmed from a strong interannual surface anomaly in the Pacific sector, but it would not have been reached without long-term climate change.
  • Regional Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to interannual timescales 

    Cruz García, Rubén; Guemas, Virginie; Chevallier, Matthieu (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2015-05-05)
    Conference report
    Open Access
    The fast depletion of the Arctic sea ice extent observed during the last three decades has awakened concerns about the consequences of such changes at hemispheric scales, and opened socio-economic opportunities such as ...
  • The Role of Arctic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures on the Cold 2015 February Over North America 

    Bellprat, Omar; Massonnet, François; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Fuckar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-01)
    Article
    Open Access
    The cold spell of February 2015 in North America was predominantly internally generated; reduced Arctic sea ice and anomalous sea surface temperatures may have contributed in establishing and sustaining the anomalous flow.
  • Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution 

    Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G. (Nature Research, 2019-04-15)
    Article
    Open Access
    Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme ...