Browsing by Author "Donat, Markus"Més informació

Now showing items 1-20 of 33

    • A global probabilistic dataset for monitoring meteorological droughts 

      Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Donat, Markus; Toreti, Andrea; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      DROP is a global land dataset to monitor meteorological drought that gathers an ensemble of observation-based datasets providing near-real time estimates with associated uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. Accurate ...

    • A perfect-model perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox in initialized decadal predictions 

      Mahmood, Rashed; Donat, Markus; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne (American Meteorological Society, 2025-05-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      nitialized climate predictions have shown success in predicting interannual to decadal climate variations in some regions. However, the initialized predictions also suffer from different issues arising from imperfect ...

    • Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales 

      Cvijanovic, Ivana; Simon, Amelie; Levine, Xavier; White, Rachel; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Donat, Markus; Bojovic, Dragana; Lapin, Vladimir; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Nature Research, 2025)
      Article
      Open Access
      Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote ...

    • Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records 

      Plésiat, Étienne; Dunn, Robert J. H.; Donat, Markus; Kadow, Christopher (Nature Research, 2024-10)
      Article
      Open Access
      The understanding of recent climate extremes and the characterization of climate risk require examining these extremes within a historical context. However, the existing datasets of observed extremes generally exhibit ...

    • Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarria, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ...

    • Atmospheric feedback explains disparate climate response to regional Arctic sea-ice loss 

      Levine, Xavier; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Donat, Markus; Tourigny, Etienne (Nature Research, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Arctic sea-ice loss is a consequence of anthropogenic global warming and can itself be a driver of climate change in the Arctic and at lower latitudes, with sea-ice minima likely favoring extreme events over Europe and ...

    • Changes in observed daily precipitation over global land areas since 1950 

      Contractor, Steefan; Donat, Markus; Alexander, Lisa V. (American Meteorological Society, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Estimates of observed long-term changes in daily precipitation globally have been limited due to availability of high-quality observations. In this study, a new gridded dataset of daily precipitation, called Rainfall ...

    • Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution 

      Yin, Hong; Sun, Ying; Donat, Markus (IOP Publishing Ltd, 2019-11-27)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest and highest upland on Earth. Warming on the TP is faster than that in surrounding areas. Evaluating our understanding of the causes behind these changes provides a test of tools used ...

    • Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes 

      De Luca, Paolo; Delgado Torres, Carlos; Mahmood, Rashed; Samsó, Margarida; Donat, Markus (IOP Publishing, 2023)
      Article
      Open Access
      Hot, cold and dry meteorological extremes are often linked with severe impacts on the public health, agricultural, energy and environmental sectors. Skillful predictions of such extremes could therefore enable stakeholders ...

    • Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation 

      Paik, Seungmok; Min, Seung‐Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Donat, Markus; King, Andrew D.; Sun, Qiaohong (Wiley, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observed and CMIP6 multimodel simulated changes in annual maximum daily and consecutive 5‐day ...

    • Development of an updated global land in situ‐based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX3 

      Dunn, Rober J. H.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus; Zhang, Xuebin; Bador, Margot; Herold, Nicholas; Lippmann, Tanya; Allan, Rob; Aguilar, Enric; Barry, Abdoul Aziz; Brunet, Manola; Caesar, John; Chagnaud, Guillaume; Cheng, Vincent; Cinco, Thelma; Durre, Imke; Guzman, Rosaline, de; Htay, Tin Mar; Wan Ibadullah, Wan Maisarah; Ibrahim, Muhammad Khairul Izzat Bin; Khoshkam, Mahbobeh; Kruger, Andries; Kubota, Hisayuki; Leng, Tan Wee; Lim, Gerald; Li‐Sha, Lim; Marengo, Jose; Mbatha, Sifiso; McGree, Simon; Menne, Matthew; Skansi, Maria de los Milagros; Ngwenya, Sandile; Nkrumah, Francis; Oonariya, Chalump; Pabon‐Caicedo, Jose Daniel; Panthou, Gérémy; Pham, Cham; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Ramos, Andrea; Salgado, Ernesto; Salinger, Jim; Sané, Youssouph; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Srivastava, Arvind; Sun, Ying; Timbal, Bertrand; Trachow, Nichanun; Trewin, Blair; Schrier, Gerard, van der; Vazquez‐Aguirre, Jorge; Vasquez, Ricardo; Villarroel, Claudia; Vincent, Lucie; Vischel, Theo; Vose, Russ; Yussof, Mohd Noor'Arifin Bin Hj (Wiley, 2020-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      We present the second update to a data set of gridded land‐based temperature and precipitation extremes indices: HadEX3. This consists of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily, in situ observations ...

    • Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events 

      Sen Gupta, Alex; Thomsen, Mads; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Oliver, Eric; Alexander, Lisa V.; Burrows, Michael T.; Donat, Markus; Feng, Ming; Holbrook, Neil J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Moore, Pippa J.; Rodrigues, Regina R.; Scannell, Hillary A.; Taschetto, Andréa S.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A. (Springer Nature, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to ...

    • Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate 

      Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo (American Meteorological Society, 2022-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on ...

    • Hot and cold marine extreme events in the Mediterranean over the period 1982-2021 

      Simon, Amelie; Plecha, Sandra M.; Russo, Ana; Teles Machado, Ana; Donat, Markus; Auger, Pierre-Amael; Trigo, Ricardo M. (Frontiers Media, 2022-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      Marine temperature extremes are anomalous ocean temperature events, often persisting over several weeks or longer, with potential impacts on physical and ecological processes that often encompass socio-economic implications. ...

    • How Credibly Do CMIP6 Simulations Capture Historical Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes? 

      Donat, Markus; Delgado Torres, Carlos; Luca, Paolo de; Mahmood, Rashed; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Wiley, 2023)
      Article
      Open Access
      Abstract Future precipitation changes are typically estimated from climate model simulations, while the credibility of such projections needs to be assessed by their ability to capture observed precipitation changes. Here ...

    • How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature? 

      Verfaillie, Deborah; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Torralba, Verónica; Wild, Simon (American Meteorological Society (AMS), 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Decadal climate predictions are being increasingly used by stakeholders interested in the evolution of climate over the coming decade. However, investigating the added value of those initialized decadal predictions over ...

    • Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon 

      Mohino, Elsa; Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Mignot, Juliette; Diakhaté, Moussa; Donat, Markus; Roberts, Christopher David; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Copernicus Publications, 2024)
      Article
      Open Access
      Previous studies agree on an impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the total seasonal rainfall amounts over the Sahel. However, whether and how the AMV affects the distribution of rainfall or the timing ...

    • Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations 

      Donat, Markus; Mahmood, Rashed; Cos, Josep; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2024)
      Article
      Open Access
      Projections of near-term climate change in the next few decades are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Approaches to reduce this uncertainty by constraining the phasing of climate variability ...

    • Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales 

      Meehl, Gerald A.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Teng, Haiyan; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus (Springer Nature, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for up to 10 years. Skilful predictions at time ...

    • Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from in situ, space-based and reanalysis products 

      Alexander, Lisa V.; Bador, Margot; Roca, Rémy; Contractor, Steefan; Donat, Markus; Nguyen, Phuong Loan (IOP Publishing Ltd, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      A range of in situ, satellite and reanalysis products on a common daily 1° × 1° latitude/longitude grid were extracted from the Frequent Rainfall Observations on Grids database to help facilitate intercomparison and analysis ...