Now showing items 1-13 of 13

    • A novel initialization technique for decadal climate predictions 

      Volpi, Danila; Meccia, Virna L.; Guemas, Virginie; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Amaral, Arthur; Echevarria, Pablo; Mahmood, Rashed; Corti, Susanna (Frontiers Media, 2021-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      Model initialization is a matter of transferring the observed information available at the start of a forecast to the model. An optimal initialization is generally recognized to be able to improve climate predictions up ...
    • Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarria, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ...
    • Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction 

      Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily J.; Butler, Amy H.; Coelho, Caio A.S.; Danabasoglu, Gorkhan; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Ferranti, Laura; Ilynia, Tatiana; Kumar, Arun; Müller, Wolfang A.; Rixen, Michel; Robertson, Andrew W.; Smith, Doug M.; Takayaka, Yuhei; Tuma, Matthias; Vitart, Frederic; White, Christopher J.; Alvarez, Mariano S.; Ardilouze, Constantin; Attard, Hannah; Baggett, Cory; Balsameda, Magdalena A.; Beraki, Asmeron F.; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Bilbao, Roberto; Andrade, Felipe M. de; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Díaz, Leandro B.; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Fragkoulidis, Georgios; Grainger, Sam; Green, Benjamin W.; Hell, Momme C.; Infanti, Johanna M.; Isensee, Katharina; Kataoka, Takahito; Kirtman, Ben P.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Lee, June-Yi; Mayer, Kristen; McKay, Roseanna; Mecking, Jennifer V; Miller, Douglas E.; Neddermann, Nele; Justin Ng, Ching Ho; Ossó, Albert; Pankatz, Klaus; Peatman, Simon; Pegion, Kathy; Perlwitz, Judith; Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina; Reintges, Annika; Renkl, Christoph; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Spring, Aaron; Stan, Cristiana; Sun, Y. Qiang; Tozer, Carly R.; Vigaud, Nicolas; Woolnough, Steven; Yeager, Stephen (American Meteorological Society, 2020-01-29)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather ...
    • Decadal climate prediction at the BSC 

      Wild, Simon; Bilbao, Roberto (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2020-05)
      Conference report
      Open Access
      Initialised decadal climate predictions have been made available for users as a potential source of near-term climate information with the aim of supporting climate-related decisions in key economic and societal sectors ...
    • Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 

      Ménégoz, Martin; Bilbao, Roberto; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2018-06-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western ...
    • Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Athanasiadis, Panos; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Ho, An-Chi; Samsó, Margarida (Copernicus Publications, 2024)
      Article
      Open Access
      In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales ...
    • Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre 

      Polkova, Iuliia; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Koehl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Bilbao, Roberto (Frontiers Media, 2023)
      Article
      Open Access
      Due to large northward transports of heat, the Atlantic Ocean circulation is strongly affecting the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, ...
    • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply 

      Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Athanasiadis, P.; Bellucci, A.; Bethke, Ingo; Bilbao, Roberto; Borchert, Leonard F.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Counillon, F.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, Thomas; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Estella-Perez, V.; Flavoni, S.; Hermanson, Leon; Keenlyside, Noel; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, Juliette; Mochizuki, T.; Modali, K.; Monerie, P.-A.; Müller, W.A.; Nicolí, Dario; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pankatz, K.; Pohlmann, H.; Robson, Jon; Ruggieri, P.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Swingedouw, Didier; Wang, Yiguo; Wild, Simon; Yeager, Stephen; Yang, Xiaosong; Liping, Zhang (Springer Nature, 2020-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...
    • Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C 

      Smith, D.M.; Scaife, A.A.; Hawkins, E.; Bilbao, Roberto; Boer, G.J.; Caian, M.; Caron, L.-P.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, T.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Doescher, R.; Dunstone, N.J.; Eade, R.; Hermanson, L.; Ishii, M.; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Koenigk, T.; Kushnir, Y.; Matei, D.; Meehl, G.A.; Menegoz, Martin; Merryfield, W.J.; Mochizuki, T.; Müller, W.A.; Pohlmann, H.; Power, S.; Rixen, M.; Sospedra-Alfonso, R.; Tuma, M.; Wyser, K.; Yang, X.; Yeager, S. (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2018-11-16)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary ...
    • Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems 

      Hermanson, Leon; Bilbao, Roberto; Dunstone, Nick; Ménégoz, Martin; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pohlmann, Holger; Robson, Jon I; Smith, Doug M.; Strand, Gary; Timmreck, Claudia; Yeager, Steve; Danabasoglu, Gokhan (Wiley, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and ...
    • Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: an analysis with the EC-Earth3 model 

      Carmo Costa, Teresa; Bilbao, Roberto; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Teles Machado, Ana; Dutra, Emanuel (Springer, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      This study investigates linear trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Atlantic basin. This is a region where strong decadal variability superimposes the externally forced ...
    • Using EC-Earth for climate prediction research 

      Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Acosta Cobos, Mario César; Bellprat, Omar; Bilbao, Roberto; Castrillo Melguizo, Miguel; Fuckar, Neven; Guemas, Virginie; Lledó Ponsati, Llorenç; Menegoz, Martín; Prodhomme, Chloe; Serradell Maronda, Kim; Tintó Prims, Oriol; Batté, Lauriane; Volpi, Danila; Ceglar, Andrej; Haarsma, Rein; Massonnet, François (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 2018)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate prediction at the subseasonal to interannual time range is now performed routinely and operationally by an increasing number of institutions. The feasibility of climate prediction largely depends on the existence ...
    • WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir (American Meteorological Society, 2022-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...