Now showing items 1-20 of 50

    • Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations 

      Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2016-03-16)
      Article
      Open Access
      Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These ...
    • Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth 

      Prodhomme, Chloé; Batté, L.; Massonnet, François; Davini, P.; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-05)
      Article
      Open Access
      Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community ...
    • Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset 

      Manzanas, Rodrigo; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Bhend, J.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Torralba, Verónica; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A. (Springer, 2019-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration ...
    • Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector 

      Torralba, Verónica; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Cortesi, Nicola; Manrique‐Suñén, Andrea; Lledó, Llorenç; Marcos, Raül; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Wiley, 2020-10)
      Article
      Open Access
      Abstract Atmospheric circulation patterns that prevail for several consecutive days over a specific region can have consequences for the wind energy sector as they may lead to a reduction of the wind power generation, ...
    • Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4 

      Marcos, Raül; González-Riviriego, Nube; Torralba, Verónica; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      The present developments in 10 m wind seasonal forecast products have lead to a growth in the number of studies analysing different aspects of both its predictability and applicability. However, there is still a lack of ...
    • Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state 

      Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer Verlag, 2017-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is ...
    • Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction 

      Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily J.; Butler, Amy H.; Coelho, Caio A.S.; Danabasoglu, Gorkhan; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Ferranti, Laura; Ilynia, Tatiana; Kumar, Arun; Müller, Wolfang A.; Rixen, Michel; Robertson, Andrew W.; Smith, Doug M.; Takayaka, Yuhei; Tuma, Matthias; Vitart, Frederic; White, Christopher J.; Alvarez, Mariano S.; Ardilouze, Constantin; Attard, Hannah; Baggett, Cory; Balsameda, Magdalena A.; Beraki, Asmeron F.; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Bilbao, Roberto; Andrade, Felipe M. de; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Díaz, Leandro B.; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Fragkoulidis, Georgios; Grainger, Sam; Green, Benjamin W.; Hell, Momme C.; Infanti, Johanna M.; Isensee, Katharina; Kataoka, Takahito; Kirtman, Ben P.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Lee, June-Yi; Mayer, Kristen; McKay, Roseanna; Mecking, Jennifer V; Miller, Douglas E.; Neddermann, Nele; Justin Ng, Ching Ho; Ossó, Albert; Pankatz, Klaus; Peatman, Simon; Pegion, Kathy; Perlwitz, Judith; Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina; Reintges, Annika; Renkl, Christoph; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Spring, Aaron; Stan, Cristiana; Sun, Y. Qiang; Tozer, Carly R.; Vigaud, Nicolas; Woolnough, Steven; Yeager, Stephen (American Meteorological Society, 2020-01-29)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather ...
    • Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach 

      Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K. (Springer International Publishing, 2016-06-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next ...
    • Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction 

      Torralba, Verónica; Jiménez, Isadora; Lledó, Llorenç; González-Reviriego, Nube; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2015-05-05)
      Conference report
      Open Access
      Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. In this work an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts ...
    • Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability 

      Fuckar, Neven; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      This study explores the prediction skill of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice thickness (SIT) modes of variability in a state-of-the-art coupled forecast system with respect to two statistical forecast benchmarks. ...
    • Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 

      Ménégoz, Martin; Bilbao, Roberto; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2018-06-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western ...
    • How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature? 

      Verfaillie, Deborah; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Torralba, Verónica; Wild, Simon (American Meteorological Society (AMS), 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Decadal climate predictions are being increasingly used by stakeholders interested in the evolution of climate over the coming decade. However, investigating the added value of those initialized decadal predictions over ...
    • How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts? 

      Hemri, Stephan; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Siegert, Stefan; Stephenson, David B.; Gutiérrez, José M.; Brookshaw, Anca; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer Link, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Seasonal forecasts of variables like near-surface temperature or precipitation are becoming increasingly important for a wide range of stakeholders. Due to the many possibilities of recalibrating, combining, and verifying ...
    • How to use mixed precision in ocean models: exploring a potential reduction of numerical precision in NEMO 4.0 and ROMS 3.6 

      Tintó-Prims, Oriol; Acosta Cobos, Mario César; Moore, Andrew M.; Castrillo, Miguel; Serradell, Kim; Cortés, Ana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2019-07-24)
      Article
      Open Access
      Mixed-precision approaches can provide substantial speed-ups for both computing- and memory-bound codes with little effort. Most scientific codes have overengineered the numerical precision, leading to a situation in which ...
    • Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe 

      Prodhomme, Chloé; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Bellprat, Omar; Dutra, Emanuel (Springer, 2015-11-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      Land surfaces and soil conditions are key sources of climate predictability at the seasonal time scale. In order to estimate how the initialization of the land surface affects the predictability at seasonal time scale, we ...
    • Impact of springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts 

      Senan, Retish; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Weisheimer, Antje; Vitart, Frédéric; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Stockdale, Timothy N.; Dutra, Emanuel; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Basang, Droma (Springer, 2016-02-20)
      Article
      Open Access
      The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. To assess the impact of realistic initialization ...
    • Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States 

      Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Soret, Albert (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2018-05-27)
      Article
      Open Access
      During the first quarter of 2015 the United States experienced a widespread and extended episode of low surface wind speeds. This episode had a strong impact on wind power generation. Some wind farms did not generate enough ...
    • Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast 

      Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Nature Publishing Group, 2018-01-22)
      Article
      Open Access
      Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the ...
    • Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill 

      Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Ortega, Pablo; Batté, Lauriane; Smith, Doug; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Sicardi, Valentina; Torralba, Veronica; Tourigny, Etienne; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020-02-28)
      Article
      Open Access
      Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using ...
    • Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability 

      Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, Virginie; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, Chloe (Springer, 2017-12-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. ...