Browsing by Author "Doblas-Reyes, Francisco"
Now showing items 1-20 of 82
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A Data Set for intercomparing the transient behavior of dynamical model-based subseasonal to decadal climate predictions
(American Geophysical Union, 2021)
Article
Open AccessClimate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies ... -
A global probabilistic dataset for monitoring meteorological droughts
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)
Article
Open AccessDROP is a global land dataset to monitor meteorological drought that gathers an ensemble of observation-based datasets providing near-real time estimates with associated uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. Accurate ... -
A novel initialization technique for decadal climate predictions
(Frontiers Media, 2021-07)
Article
Open AccessModel initialization is a matter of transferring the observed information available at the start of a forecast to the model. An optimal initialization is generally recognized to be able to improve climate predictions up ... -
A perfect prognosis downscaling methodology for seasonal prediction of local-scale wind speeds
(IOP Publishing, 2021)
Article
Open AccessThis work provides a new methodology based on a statistical downscaling with a perfect prognosis approach to produce seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speeds at the local scale. Hybrid predictions combine a dynamical ... -
Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard
(Elsevier, 2019)
Article
Open Access -
An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth
(Springer Link, 2021)
Article
Open AccessThe quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. ... -
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
(Copernicus Publications, 2021)
Article
Open AccessIn this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ... -
Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America
(Springer, 2021)
Article
Open AccessWe evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections ... -
Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations
(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2016-03-16)
Article
Open AccessEvent attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These ... -
Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth
(American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-05)
Article
Open AccessResolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community ... -
Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset
(Springer, 2019-08)
Article
Open AccessThis work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration ... -
Call to action for global access to and harmonization of quality information of individual Earth Science datasets
(Ubiquity Press, 2021)
Article
Open AccessKnowledge about the quality of data and metadata is important to support informed decisions on the (re)use of individual datasets and is an essential part of the ecosystem that supports open science. Quality assessments ... -
Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector
(Wiley, 2020-10)
Article
Open AccessAbstract Atmospheric circulation patterns that prevail for several consecutive days over a specific region can have consequences for the wind energy sector as they may lead to a reduction of the wind power generation, ... -
Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4
(Springer, 2019-03)
Article
Open AccessThe present developments in 10 m wind seasonal forecast products have lead to a growth in the number of studies analysing different aspects of both its predictability and applicability. However, there is still a lack of ... -
Choices in the verification of S2S forecasts and their implications for climate services
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)
Article
Open AccessSubseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For ... -
Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state
(Springer Verlag, 2017-08)
Article
Open AccessDecadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is ... -
Coordination of Europe’s climate-related knowledge base: Networking and collaborating through interactive events, social media and focussed groups
(Elsevier, 2021)
Article
Open AccessKnowledge of the climate is essential to manage climate-related risks. Underpinning this knowledge is a huge range of climate research and climate service activities. There has been a marked expansion of such activities ... -
Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2020-01-29)
Article
Open AccessClimate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather ... -
Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach
(Springer International Publishing, 2016-06-04)
Article
Open AccessIn decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next ... -
Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction
(Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2015-05-05)
Conference report
Open AccessClimate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. In this work an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts ...
