Now showing items 1-20 of 64

    • A dataset for intercomparing the transient behavior of dynamical model-based subseasonal to decadal climate predictions 

      Saurral, Ramiro I.; Merryfield, William J.; Tolstykh, Mikhail A.; Lee, Woo-Sung; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; García Serrano, Javier; Massonnet, François; Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan (Wiley Open Access, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts and biases which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies ...
    • A global probabilistic dataset for monitoring meteorological droughts 

      Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Donat, Markus; Toreti, Andrea; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      DROP is a global land dataset to monitor meteorological drought that gathers an ensemble of observation-based datasets providing near-real time estimates with associated uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. Accurate ...
    • A perfect prognosis downscaling methodology for seasonal prediction of local-scale wind speeds 

      Ramón, Jaume; Lledó, Llorenç; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Samso Cabré, Margarida; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      This work provides a new methodology based on a statistical downscaling with a perfect prognosis approach to produce seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speeds at the local scale. Hybrid predictions combine a dynamical ...
    • Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard 

      Galmarini, Stefano; Cannon, Alex J.; Ceglar, Andrej; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie D. de; Dentener, Frank J.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dosio, Alessandro; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Iturbide, Maialen; Jury, Martin W.; Lange, Stefan; Loukos, Harilaos; Maiorano, Andrea; Maraun, Douglas; McGinnis, Seth A.; Nikulin, Grigory N.; Riccio, Angelo; Sanchez, Enrique; Solazzo, Efisio; Toreti, Andrea; Vrac, Mathieu; Zampieri, Matteo (Elsevier, 2019)
      Article
      Open Access
    • An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth 

      Cruz-García, Rubén; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Guemas, Virginie; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer Link, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. ...
    • Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarria, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ...
    • Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America 

      Almazroui, Mansour; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Islam, M. Nazrul; Rashid, Irfan Ur; Kamil, Shahzad; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections ...
    • Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations 

      Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2016-03-16)
      Article
      Open Access
      Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These ...
    • Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth 

      Prodhomme, Chloé; Batté, L.; Massonnet, François; Davini, P.; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-05)
      Article
      Open Access
      Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community ...
    • Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset 

      Manzanas, Rodrigo; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Bhend, J.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Torralba, Verónica; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A. (Springer, 2019-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration ...
    • Call to action for global access to and harmonization of quality information of individual Earth Science datasets 

      Peng, Ge; Downs, Robert R.; Lacagnina, Carlo; Ramapriyan, Hampapuram; Ivánová, Ivana; Larnicol, Gilles; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Ubiquity Press, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Knowledge about the quality of data and metadata is important to support informed decisions on the (re)use of individual datasets and is an essential part of the ecosystem that supports open science. Quality assessments ...
    • Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector 

      Torralba, Verónica; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Cortesi, Nicola; Manrique‐Suñén, Andrea; Lledó, Llorenç; Marcos, Raül; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Wiley, 2020-10)
      Article
      Open Access
      Abstract Atmospheric circulation patterns that prevail for several consecutive days over a specific region can have consequences for the wind energy sector as they may lead to a reduction of the wind power generation, ...
    • Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4 

      Marcos, Raül; González-Riviriego, Nube; Torralba, Verónica; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      The present developments in 10 m wind seasonal forecast products have lead to a growth in the number of studies analysing different aspects of both its predictability and applicability. However, there is still a lack of ...
    • Choices in the verification of S2S forecasts and their implications for climate services 

      Manrique Suñén, Andrea; Gonzalez Reviriego, Nube; Torralba, Verónica; Cortesi, Nicola; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Subseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For ...
    • Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state 

      Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer Verlag, 2017-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is ...
    • Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction 

      Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily J.; Butler, Amy H.; Coelho, Caio A.S.; Danabasoglu, Gorkhan; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Ferranti, Laura; Ilynia, Tatiana; Kumar, Arun; Müller, Wolfang A.; Rixen, Michel; Robertson, Andrew W.; Smith, Doug M.; Takayaka, Yuhei; Tuma, Matthias; Vitart, Frederic; White, Christopher J.; Alvarez, Mariano S.; Ardilouze, Constantin; Attard, Hannah; Baggett, Cory; Balsameda, Magdalena A.; Beraki, Asmeron F.; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Bilbao, Roberto; Andrade, Felipe M. de; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Díaz, Leandro B.; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Fragkoulidis, Georgios; Grainger, Sam; Green, Benjamin W.; Hell, Momme C.; Infanti, Johanna M.; Isensee, Katharina; Kataoka, Takahito; Kirtman, Ben P.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Lee, June-Yi; Mayer, Kristen; McKay, Roseanna; Mecking, Jennifer V; Miller, Douglas E.; Neddermann, Nele; Justin Ng, Ching Ho; Ossó, Albert; Pankatz, Klaus; Peatman, Simon; Pegion, Kathy; Perlwitz, Judith; Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina; Reintges, Annika; Renkl, Christoph; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Spring, Aaron; Stan, Cristiana; Sun, Y. Qiang; Tozer, Carly R.; Vigaud, Nicolas; Woolnough, Steven; Yeager, Stephen (American Meteorological Society, 2020-01-29)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather ...
    • Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach 

      Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K. (Springer International Publishing, 2016-06-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next ...
    • Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction 

      Torralba, Verónica; Jiménez, Isadora; Lledó, Llorenç; González-Reviriego, Nube; Soret, Albert; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2015-05-05)
      Conference report
      Open Access
      Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. In this work an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts ...
    • Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability 

      Fuckar, Neven; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      This study explores the prediction skill of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice thickness (SIT) modes of variability in a state-of-the-art coupled forecast system with respect to two statistical forecast benchmarks. ...
    • Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 

      Ménégoz, Martin; Bilbao, Roberto; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2018-06-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western ...