Now showing items 1-13 of 13

    • An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth 

      Cruz-García, Rubén; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Guemas, Virginie; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (Springer Link, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. ...
    • Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarria, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ...
    • Atmospheric feedback explains disparate climate response to regional Arctic sea-ice loss 

      Levine, Xavier; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Donat, Markus; Tourigny, Etienne (Nature Research, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Arctic sea-ice loss is a consequence of anthropogenic global warming and can itself be a driver of climate change in the Arctic and at lower latitudes, with sea-ice minima likely favoring extreme events over Europe and ...
    • Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? 

      Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Loosveldt Tomas, Saskia; Roberts, Malcolm J (IOP Publishing, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ~100 km resolution models that can misrepresent ...
    • Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models 

      Koenigk, Torben; Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Meccia, Virna L.; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Arsouze, Thomas (Springer, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador ...
    • Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill 

      Exarchou, Eleftheria; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Losada, Teresa; Polo, Irene; Prodhomme, Chloé (Springer Nature, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations ...
    • Impact of the ice thickness distribution discretization on the sea ice concentration variability in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model 

      Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Massonnet, François (Copernicus Publications, 2020-10-05)
      Article
      Open Access
      This study assesses the impact of different sea ice thickness distribution (ITD) discretizations on the sea ice concentration (SIC) variability in ocean stand-alone NEMO3.6–LIM3 simulations. Three ITD discretizations with ...
    • Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study 

      Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Robson, Jon I.; Menary, Matthew; Sutton, Rowan T.; Blaker, Adam; Germe, Agathe; Hirschi, Jöel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Hermanson, Leon; Yeager, Stephen (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced ...
    • Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene 

      Hernández, Armand; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Moffa-Sánchez, Paola; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Blockley, Simon; Cobb, Kim M.; Comas-Bru, Laia; Giralt, Santiago; Goosse, Hugues; Luterbacher, Jürg; Martrat, Belen; Muscheler, Raimund; Parnell, Andrew; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Sjolte, Jesper; Scaife, Adam A.; Swingedouw, Didier; Wise, Erika; Xu, Guobao (Elsevier, 2020-10)
      Article
      Restricted access - publisher's policy
      Modes of climate variability affect global and regional climates on different spatio-temporal scales, and they have important impacts on human activities and ecosystems. As these modes are a useful tool for simplifying the ...
    • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply 

      Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Athanasiadis, P.; Bellucci, A.; Bethke, Ingo; Bilbao, Roberto; Borchert, Leonard F.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Counillon, F.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, Thomas; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Estella-Perez, V.; Flavoni, S.; Hermanson, Leon; Keenlyside, Noel; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, Juliette; Mochizuki, T.; Modali, K.; Monerie, P.-A.; Müller, W.A.; Nicolí, Dario; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pankatz, K.; Pohlmann, H.; Robson, Jon; Ruggieri, P.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Swingedouw, Didier; Wang, Yiguo; Wild, Simon; Yeager, Stephen; Yang, Xiaosong; Liping, Zhang (Springer Nature, 2020-07)
      Article
      Open Access
      Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...
    • Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems 

      Hermanson, Leon; Bilbao, Roberto; Dunstone, Nick; Ménégoz, Martin; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pohlmann, Holger; Robson, Jon I; Smith, Doug M.; Strand, Gary; Timmreck, Claudia; Yeager, Steve; Danabasoglu, Gokhan (Wiley, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and ...
    • Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to model resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations and implications for future changes 

      Roberts, Malcolm J.; Jackson, Laura C.; Roberts, Christopher D.; Meccia, Virna; Docquier, David; Koenigk, Torben; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Moreno‐Chamarro, Eduardo; Bellucci, Alessio; Coward, Andrew; Drijfhout, Sybren; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Gutjahr, Oliver; Hewitt, Helene; Iovino, Doroteaciro; Lohmann, Katja; Putrasahan, Dian Putrasahan; Schiemann, Reinhard; Seddon, Jon; Terray, Laurent; Xu, Xiaobiao; Zhang, Qiuying; Chang, Ping; Yeager, Stephen G.; Castruccio, Frederic S.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Wu, Lixin (Wiley, 2020-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      A multimodel, multiresolution ensemble using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) coupled experiments is used to assess the performance of key ...
    • Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts 

      Batté, Laurianne; Välisuo, Ilona; Chevallier, Matthieu; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Smith, Doug (Springer Link, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this study, the forecast quality of 1993–2014 summer seasonal predictions of five global coupled models, of which three are operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service ...