Model initialization is a matter of transferring the observed information available at the start of a forecast to the model. An optimal initialization is generally recognized to be able to improve climate predictions up ...

The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. ...

Deep oceanic overturning circulation in the Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC) is projected to decrease in the future in response to anthropogenic warming. Caesar et al. 1 argue that an AMOC ...

IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ~100 km resolution models that can misrepresent ...

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers ...

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations ...

In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales ...

Projections of near-term climate change in the next few decades are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Approaches to reduce this uncertainty by constraining the phasing of climate variability ...

The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced ...

Abstract Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems ...