Model initialization is a matter of transferring the observed information available at the start of a forecast to the model. An optimal initialization is generally recognized to be able to improve climate predictions up ...

The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. ...

Deep oceanic overturning circulation in the Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC) is projected to decrease in the future in response to anthropogenic warming. Caesar et al. 1 argue that an AMOC ...

IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ~100 km resolution models that can misrepresent ...

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers ...

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations ...

The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools ...

The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced ...

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive ...