Now showing items 1-11 of 11

    • Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations 

      Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2016-03-16)
      Article
      Open Access
      Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These ...
    • Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth 

      Prodhomme, Chloé; Batté, L.; Massonnet, François; Davini, P.; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-05)
      Article
      Open Access
      Resolution in climate models is thought to be an important factor for advancing seasonal prediction capability. To test this hypothesis, seasonal ensemble reforecasts are conducted over 1993–2009 with the European community ...
    • Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP 

      Eyring, Veronika; Bock, Lisa; Lauer, Axel; Righi, Mattia; Schlund, Manuel; Andela, Bouwe; Arnone, Enrico; Bellprat, Omar; Brötz, Björn; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Carvalhais, Nuno; Cionni, Irene; Cortesi, Nicola; Crezee, Bas; Davin, Edouard L.; Davini, Paolo; Debeire, Kevin; Mora, Lee, de; Deser, Clara; Docquier, David; Earnshaw, Paul; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Gier, Bettina K.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Goodman, Paul; Hagemann, Stefan; Hardiman, Steven; Hassler, Birgit; Hunter, Alasdair; Kadow, Christopher; Kindermann, Stephan; Koirala, Sujan; Koldunov, Nikolay; Lejeune, Quentin; Lembo, Valerio; Lovato, Tomas; Lucarini, Valerio; Massonnet, François; Müller, Benjamin; Pandde, Amarjiit; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Phillips, Adam; Predoi, Valeriu; Russell, Joellen; Sellar, Alistair; Serva, Federico; Stacke, Tobias; Swaminathan, Ranjini; Torralba, Verónica; Vegas-Regidor, Javier; Hardenberg, Jost, von; Weigel, Katja; Zimmermann, Klaus (Copernicus Publications, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled ...
    • Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 

      Ménégoz, Martin; Bilbao, Roberto; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (IOP Publishing, 2018-06-06)
      Article
      Open Access
      The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western ...
    • Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe 

      Prodhomme, Chloé; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Bellprat, Omar; Dutra, Emanuel (Springer, 2015-11-04)
      Article
      Open Access
      Land surfaces and soil conditions are key sources of climate predictability at the seasonal time scale. In order to estimate how the initialization of the land surface affects the predictability at seasonal time scale, we ...
    • Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States 

      Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Soret, Albert (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2018-05-27)
      Article
      Open Access
      During the first quarter of 2015 the United States experienced a widespread and extended episode of low surface wind speeds. This episode had a strong impact on wind power generation. Some wind farms did not generate enough ...
    • Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) 

      Butchart, Neal; Anstey, James A.; Hamilton, Kevin; Osprey, Scott; McLandress, Charles; Bushell, Andrew C.; Kawatani, Yoshio; Kim, Young-Ha; Lott, François; Scinocca, John; Stockdale, Tim; Bellprat, Omar; Braesicke, Peter; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Garcia, Rolando R.; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Gray, Lesley J.; Holt, Laura; Kerzenmacher, Tobias; Naoe, Hiroaki; Pohlmann, Holger; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schenzinger, Verena; Serva, Federico; Versick, Stefan; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoshida, Kohei; Yukimoto, Seiji (European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2018-03-16)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth ...
    • Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models 

      Anstey, James A.; Simpson, Isla R.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Naoe, Hiroaki; Taguchi, Masakazu; Bellprat, Omar (Wiley, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections ...
    • The Role of Arctic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures on the Cold 2015 February Over North America 

      Bellprat, Omar; Massonnet, François; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Fuckar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco (American Meteorological Society, 2016-12-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      The cold spell of February 2015 in North America was predominantly internally generated; reduced Arctic sea ice and anomalous sea surface temperatures may have contributed in establishing and sustaining the anomalous flow.
    • Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution 

      Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G. (Nature Research, 2019-04-15)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme ...
    • Using EC-Earth for climate prediction research 

      Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Acosta Cobos, Mario César; Bellprat, Omar; Bilbao, Roberto; Castrillo Melguizo, Miguel; Fuckar, Neven; Guemas, Virginie; Lledó Ponsati, Llorenç; Menegoz, Martín; Prodhomme, Chloe; Serradell Maronda, Kim; Tintó Prims, Oriol; Batté, Lauriane; Volpi, Danila; Ceglar, Andrej; Haarsma, Rein; Massonnet, François (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 2018)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate prediction at the subseasonal to interannual time range is now performed routinely and operationally by an increasing number of institutions. The feasibility of climate prediction largely depends on the existence ...