Now showing items 1-14 of 14

    • A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction 

      Klotzbach, Philip; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Bell, Michael (American Geophysical Union, 2020-10)
      Article
      Restricted access - publisher's policy
      Colorado State University (CSU) has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984, with statistical modeling techniques primarily underpinning these outlooks. CSU has recently begun issuing statistical/dynamical ...
    • Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts in Coupled GCMs on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales 

      Camp, Joanne; Caron, Louis-Philippe (Springer International Publishing, 2017-02-21)
      Part of book or chapter of book
      Open Access
      In this chapter we present advances in forecasting Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) landfall statistics at both seasonal and multi-annual timescales using coupled global climate models. First, we demonstrate potential for ...
    • Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP 

      Eyring, Veronika; Bock, Lisa; Lauer, Axel; Righi, Mattia; Schlund, Manuel; Andela, Bouwe; Arnone, Enrico; Bellprat, Omar; Brötz, Björn; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Carvalhais, Nuno; Cionni, Irene; Cortesi, Nicola; Crezee, Bas; Davin, Edouard L.; Davini, Paolo; Debeire, Kevin; Mora, Lee, de; Deser, Clara; Docquier, David; Earnshaw, Paul; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Gier, Bettina K.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Goodman, Paul; Hagemann, Stefan; Hardiman, Steven; Hassler, Birgit; Hunter, Alasdair; Kadow, Christopher; Kindermann, Stephan; Koirala, Sujan; Koldunov, Nikolay; Lejeune, Quentin; Lembo, Valerio; Lovato, Tomas; Lucarini, Valerio; Massonnet, François; Müller, Benjamin; Pandde, Amarjiit; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Phillips, Adam; Predoi, Valeriu; Russell, Joellen; Sellar, Alistair; Serva, Federico; Stacke, Tobias; Swaminathan, Ranjini; Torralba, Verónica; Vegas-Regidor, Javier; Hardenberg, Jost, von; Weigel, Katja; Zimmermann, Klaus (Copernicus Publications, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled ...
    • Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models 

      Lavender, Sally L.; Walsh, Kevin J.E.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; King, Malcolm; Monkiewicz, Sam; Guishard, Mark; Zhang, Qiong; Hunt, Barrie (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2018-08-22)
      Article
      Open Access
      Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the ...
    • HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation 

      Haarsma, Rein; Acosta Cobos, Mario César; Bakhshi, Rena; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Corti, Susanna; Davini, Paolo; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fabiano, Federico; Fladrich, Uwe; Fuentes Franco, Ramon; García-Serrano, Javier; Hardenberg, Jost, von; Koenigk, Torben; Levine, Xavier; Meccia, Virna Loana; Noije, Twan, van; Oord, Gijs, van den; Palmeiro, Froila M.; Rodrigo, Mario; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sager, Philippe, Le; Tourigny, Etienne; Wang, Shiyu; Weele, Michiel, van; Wyser, Klaus (European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for the atmosphere and 0.25∘ for the ocean, alongside with a ...
    • How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity? 

      Caron, Louis-Philippe; Hermanson, Leon; Dobbin, Alison; Imbers, Jara; Lledó, Llorenç; Vecchi, Gabriel A. (American Meteorological Society, 2018-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development ...
    • Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using theHighResMIP–PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble 

      Roberts, Malcolm J.; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vanniere, Benoit; Mecking, Jenny; Haarsma, Rein; Bellucci, Alessio; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chauvin, Fabrice; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie; Valcke, Sophie; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Putrasahan; Roberts, Christopher; Senan, Retish; Zarzycki, Colin; Ullrich, Paul (American Meteorological Society, 2020-02-25)
      Article
      Open Access
      A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcingprotocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis of tropicalcyclone performance using two ...
    • Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity 

      Baudouin, Jean-Philippe; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Boudreault, Mathieu (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the ...
    • Making seasonal outlooks of Arctic Sea ice and Atlantic hurricanes valuable—not just skillful 

      Caron, Louis-Philippe; Massonnet, François; Klotzbach, Phillip; Philp, Tom J; Stroeve, Julienne (American Meteorological Society, 2020-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      In recent years, a big effort has been made by part of the climate community toward the development of climate services in order to make climate information decision oriented. In a climate forecasting context, this means ...
    • Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector 

      Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J (2019-11-27)
      Article
      Open Access
      Decadal climate prediction, where climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and run for a decade into the future, represents a new source of near-term climate information to better ...
    • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply 

      Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Athanasiadis, P.; Bellucci, A.; Bethke, Ingo; Bilbao, Roberto; Borchert, Leonard F.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Counillon, F.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, Thomas; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Estella-Perez, V.; Flavoni, S.; Hermanson, Leon; Keenlyside, Noel; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Merryfield, W.J.; Mignot, Juliette; Mochizuki, T.; Modali, K.; Monerie, P.-A.; Müller, W.A.; Nicolí, Dario; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Pankatz, K.; Pohlmann, H.; Robson, Jon; Ruggieri, P.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Swingedouw, Didier; Wang, Yiguo; Wild, Simon; Yeager, Stephen; Yang, Xiaosong; Liping, Zhang (Springer Nature, 2020-07)
      Article
      Restricted access - publisher's policy
      Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature ...
    • Projected future changes in Tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble 

      Roberts, Malcolm John; Camp, Joanne; Jon, Seddon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vannière, Benoît; Mecking, Jenny; Haarsma, Rein; Bellucci, Alessio; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chauvin, Fabrice; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Putrasahan, Dian; Roberts, Christopher D.; Senan, Retish; Zarzycki, Colin; Ullrich, Paul; Yamada, Yohei; Mizuta, Ryo; Kodama, Chihiro; Fu, Dan; Zhang, Qiuying; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Rosenbloom, Nan; Wang, Hong; Wu, Lixin (Wiley, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ...
    • Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis 

      Boudreault, Mathieu; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Camargo, Suzana J. (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017-04-25)
      Article
      Open Access
      We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin-wide storm counts but also various series ...
    • The moisture budget of tropical cyclones in HighResMIP models: large-scale environmental balance and sensitivity to horizontal resolution 

      Vannière, Benoît; Roberts, Malcolm; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Terray, Laurent; Senan, Retish (American Meteorological Society, 2020-10-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      Previous studies have shown that the number, intensity, and structure of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models get closer to the observations as the horizontal resolution is increased. However, the sensitivity ...