Now showing items 1-20 of 31

    • A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season October–November 2020 

      Klotzbach, Philip J.; Wood, Kimberly M.; Bell, Michael M.; Blake, Eric S.; Bowen, Steven G.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Collins, Jennifer M.; Gibney, Ethan J.; Schreck III, Carl J.; Truchelut, Ryan E. (American Meteorological Society, 2022)
      Article
      Open Access
      The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (category 3+ on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). Though the season was active overall, the final two months ...
    • A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction 

      Klotzbach, Philip; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Bell, Michael (American Geophysical Union, 2020-10)
      Article
      Open Access
      Colorado State University (CSU) has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984, with statistical modeling techniques primarily underpinning these outlooks. CSU has recently begun issuing statistical/dynamical ...
    • Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts in Coupled GCMs on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales 

      Camp, Joanne; Caron, Louis-Philippe (Springer International Publishing, 2017-02-21)
      Part of book or chapter of book
      Open Access
      In this chapter we present advances in forecasting Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) landfall statistics at both seasonal and multi-annual timescales using coupled global climate models. First, we demonstrate potential for ...
    • Assessing the added-value of near-term decadal climate information for the agricultural sector 

      Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Doblas Reyes, Francisco (2018-10-18)
      Research report
      Open Access
      The study aims to explore the usage of these recent decadal predictions and illustrate the added-value of initialized predictions over non-initialized climate simulations for building a reliable climate service for ...
    • Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth 

      Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarria, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully ...
    • Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? 

      Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Ortega Montilla, Pablo; Loosveldt Tomas, Saskia; Roberts, Malcolm J (IOP Publishing, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      IPCC models project a likely increase in winter precipitation over northern Europe under a high-emission scenario. These projections, however, typically rely on relatively coarse ~100 km resolution models that can misrepresent ...
    • Climate forecast analysis tools framework 

      Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Ho, An-Chi; Benincasa, Francesco; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chou, Chihchung; Delgado-Torres, Carlos; Lledó, Llorenç; Manubens, Nicolau; Palma, Lluís (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, 2021-05)
      Conference report
      Open Access
      The climate forecast analysis tools provide functions implementing the steps required for the analysis of sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal forecast and operational climate services, allowing researchers to manipulate ...
    • Climate Services Toolbox (CSTools) v4.0: from climate forecasts to climate forecast information 

      Pérez Zanón, Núria; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Terzago, Silvia; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Lledó, Llorenç; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Delgado Torres, Carlos (Copernicus Publications, 2022)
      Article
      Open Access
      Despite the wealth of existing climate forecast data, only a small part is effectively exploited for sectoral applications. A major cause of this is the lack of integrated tools that allow the translation of data into ...
    • Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP 

      Eyring, Veronika; Bock, Lisa; Lauer, Axel; Righi, Mattia; Schlund, Manuel; Andela, Bouwe; Arnone, Enrico; Bellprat, Omar; Brötz, Björn; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Carvalhais, Nuno; Cionni, Irene; Cortesi, Nicola; Crezee, Bas; Davin, Edouard L.; Davini, Paolo; Debeire, Kevin; Mora, Lee, de; Deser, Clara; Docquier, David; Earnshaw, Paul; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Gier, Bettina K.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Goodman, Paul; Hagemann, Stefan; Hardiman, Steven; Hassler, Birgit; Hunter, Alasdair; Kadow, Christopher; Kindermann, Stephan; Koirala, Sujan; Koldunov, Nikolay; Lejeune, Quentin; Lembo, Valerio; Lovato, Tomas; Lucarini, Valerio; Massonnet, François; Müller, Benjamin; Pandde, Amarjiit; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Phillips, Adam; Predoi, Valeriu; Russell, Joellen; Sellar, Alistair; Serva, Federico; Stacke, Tobias; Swaminathan, Ranjini; Torralba, Verónica; Vegas-Regidor, Javier; Hardenberg, Jost, von; Weigel, Katja; Zimmermann, Klaus (Copernicus Publications, 2020)
      Article
      Open Access
      The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled ...
    • Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation, and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP 

      Weigel, Katja; Bock, Lisa; Gier, Bettina K.; Lauer, Axel; Lauer, Axel; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Hunter, Alasdair; Lledó, Llorenç; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Vegas-Regidor, Javier (Copernicus Publications, 2021)
      Article
      Open Access
      This paper complements a series of now four publications that document the release of the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0. It describes new diagnostics on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact ...
    • Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models 

      Lavender, Sally L.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Utembe, Steven; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Guishard, Mark (Springer, 2021-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      There are several different estimates of the observed cyclone damage potential of tropical cyclones based on observations of size, intensity and track. For the analysis of climate model data, previous work identified an ...
    • Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models 

      Lavender, Sally L.; Walsh, Kevin J.E.; Caron, Louis-Philippe; King, Malcolm; Monkiewicz, Sam; Guishard, Mark; Zhang, Qiong; Hunt, Barrie (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2018-08-22)
      Article
      Open Access
      Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the ...
    • HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation 

      Haarsma, Rein; Acosta Cobos, Mario César; Bakhshi, Rena; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Corti, Susanna; Davini, Paolo; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fabiano, Federico; Fladrich, Uwe; Fuentes Franco, Ramon; García-Serrano, Javier; Hardenberg, Jost, von; Koenigk, Torben; Levine, Xavier; Meccia, Virna Loana; Noije, Twan, van; Oord, Gijs, van den; Palmeiro, Froila M.; Rodrigo, Mario; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sager, Philippe, Le; Tourigny, Etienne; Wang, Shiyu; Weele, Michiel, van; Wyser, Klaus (European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for the atmosphere and 0.25∘ for the ocean, alongside with a ...
    • How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector 

      Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Bojovic, Dragana; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Nicodemou, Andria; Terrado Casanovas, Marta; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Doblas Reyes, Francisco (Elsevier, 2022-08)
      Article
      Open Access
      Predicting the variations in climate for the coming 1–10 years is of great interest for decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with the strategic planning of stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such as ...
    • How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity? 

      Caron, Louis-Philippe; Hermanson, Leon; Dobbin, Alison; Imbers, Jara; Lledó, Llorenç; Vecchi, Gabriel A. (American Meteorological Society, 2018-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development ...
    • Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models 

      Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Loosveldt Tomas, Saskia; Vegas Regidor, Javier; Gutjahr, Oliver; Tourigny, Etienne (Copernicus Publications, 2022-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical ...
    • Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using theHighResMIP–PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble 

      Roberts, Malcolm J.; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vanniere, Benoit; Mecking, Jenny; Haarsma, Rein; Bellucci, Alessio; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chauvin, Fabrice; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie; Valcke, Sophie; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Putrasahan; Roberts, Christopher; Senan, Retish; Zarzycki, Colin; Ullrich, Paul (American Meteorological Society, 2020-02-25)
      Article
      Open Access
      A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcingprotocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis of tropicalcyclone performance using two ...
    • Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity 

      Baudouin, Jean-Philippe; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Boudreault, Mathieu (Springer, 2019-03)
      Article
      Open Access
      Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the ...
    • Making seasonal outlooks of Arctic Sea ice and Atlantic hurricanes valuable—not just skillful 

      Caron, Louis-Philippe; Massonnet, François; Klotzbach, Phillip; Philp, Tom J; Stroeve, Julienne (American Meteorological Society, 2020-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      In recent years, a big effort has been made by part of the climate community toward the development of climate services in order to make climate information decision oriented. In a climate forecasting context, this means ...
    • Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector 

      Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; González Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Zampieri, Matteo; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Samso Cabre, Margarida; Doblas Reyes, Francisco (Springer Nature, 2021-06-01)
      Article
      Open Access
      Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for ...