Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes
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hdl:2117/9237
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2010-09
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Reconeixement-NoComercial-SenseObraDerivada 3.0 Espanya
Abstract
The complex spatial and temporal characteristics
of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive
days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold)
and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed
from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges
along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained
by considering four thresholds, R0, of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0
and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity,
randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL
regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses
and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem.
First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series
of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to
Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis
reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence
are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity
of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified
by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined
by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of
memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons
for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values
of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability
is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In
this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe,
sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely,
three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It
is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal
parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude
but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate
or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean
Sea.
CitacióLana, F. [et al.]. Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes. "Nonlinear processes in geophysics", Setembre 2010, vol. 17, núm. 5, p. 499-512.
ISSN1607-7946
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