The holistic evaluation of the seismic risk for Manizales, Colombia

Abstract

This article presents a methodology which evaluates the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, that is, it takes into account the expected physical damage and also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second order effects when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. Indicators or indices could be used to measure seismic risk from a comprehensive and multidisciplinary perspective. They capture favourable conditions for direct physical impacts (exposure and susceptibility), as well as indirect and, at times, intangible impacts (socio-ecological fragilities and lack of resilience) of hazard events. This article presents the case study of the city of Manizales, Colombia, where recent updates of the studies of seismic hazard of physical seismic risk, by using the CAPRA platform, provide complete information on physical aspects of risk. The seismic hazard has been simulated by using the system CRISIS 2014 which is part of the platform CAPRA, CRISIS 2014 allows calculating the seismic hazard associated with all feasible events that could occur, a group of selected events, or even a single relevant event. The vulnerability of the buildings in the city has been defined by vulnerability functions using the Vulnerability Module of the CAPRA platform. These functions are defined for each building typology; the most common structural system used in Manizales. The physical risk results joined with a wide range of socio-economic indicators and risk drivers for the city, allow evaluating seismic risk from a holistic perspective. This case study is part of the results obtained in the frame of the inter-institutional agreement