Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2016-04-21
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
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Reconeixement-NoComercial-SenseObraDerivada 3.0 Espanya
ProjecteDESERTSTORMS - Desert Storms (EC-FP7-257543)
ACTRIS - Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research Infrastructure Network (EC-FP7-262254)
ACTRIS-2 - Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (EC-H2020-654109)
MACC II - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate Interim Implementation (EC-FP7-283576)
MACC-III - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate -III (EC-H2020-633080)
ACTRIS - Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research Infrastructure Network (EC-FP7-262254)
ACTRIS-2 - Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (EC-H2020-654109)
MACC II - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate Interim Implementation (EC-FP7-283576)
MACC-III - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate -III (EC-H2020-633080)
Abstract
In the framework of theWorld Meteorological Organisation’s
Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and
Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five
state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan
dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in
April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict
the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up
to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD)
from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement
network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust
distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization
(CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability
among the models, the analysis was extended to wind
field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions
and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and
evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average,
differences among the models are larger than differences
among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large
differences in emission and deposition, the models present
comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in
predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over
the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the longrange
transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the
vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in
the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also
account for model diversity in long-range transport.
CitacióHuneeus, N., Basart, S., Baldasano, J. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison. "Atmospheric chemistry and physics", 21 Abril 2016, vol. 8, núm. 16, p. 4967-4986.
ISSN1680-7316
Versió de l'editorhttp://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/4967/2016/
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