Mostra el registre d'ítem simple

dc.contributor.authorProdhomme, Chloé
dc.contributor.authorDoblas-Reyes, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorBellprat, Omar
dc.contributor.authorDutra, Emanuel
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-29T11:52:02Z
dc.date.available2016-11-04T01:30:35Z
dc.date.issued2015-11-04
dc.identifier.citationProdhomme, Chloé [et al.]. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. "Climate Dynamics", 04 Novembre 2015.
dc.identifier.issn1432-0894
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/83542
dc.descriptionThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4
dc.description.abstractLand surfaces and soil conditions are key sources of climate predictability at the seasonal time scale. In order to estimate how the initialization of the land surface affects the predictability at seasonal time scale, we run two sets of seasonal hindcasts with the general circulation model EC-Earth2.3. The initialization of those hindcasts is done either with climatological or realistic land initialization in May using the ERA-Land re-analysis. Results show significant improvements in the initialized run occurring up to the last forecast month. The prediction of near-surface summer temperatures and precipitation at the global scale and over Europe are improved, as well as the warm extremes prediction. As an illustration, we show that the 2010 Russian heat wave is only predicted when soil moisture is initialized. No significant improvement is found for the retrospective prediction of the 2003 European heat wave, suggesting this event to be mainly large-scale driven. Thus, we confirm that late-spring soil moisture conditions can be decisive in triggering high-impact events in the following summer in Europe. Accordingly, accurate land-surface initial conditions are essential for seasonal predictions.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme FP7 (2007–2013) under grant agreements 308378 (SPECS), 282378 (DEN-FREE) and 607085 (EUCLEIA), and from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) under the project CGL2013-41055-R. We acknowledge the s2dverification R-based package (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/s2dverification/index.html). We also thank ECMWF for providing the ERA-Land initial conditions and computing resources through the SPICCF Special Project.
dc.format.extent17 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònica::Impacte ambiental
dc.subject.lcshClimate
dc.subject.otherLand-surface initialization
dc.subject.otherSeasonal forecasting
dc.subject.otherExtreme
dc.subject.otherHeat wave
dc.titleImpact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacClimatologia
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2879-4
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (author's final draft)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308378/EU/Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services/SPECS
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282378/EU/Dengue research Framework for Resisting Epidemics in Europe/DENFREE
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/607085/EU/EUropean CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution/EUCLEIA
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2013-41055-R/ES/REFUERZO DE LA RED ENERGETICA EUROPEA CON EL USO DE SERVICIOS CLIMATICOS/
local.citation.publicationNameClimate Dynamics


Fitxers d'aquest items

Thumbnail

Aquest ítem apareix a les col·leccions següents

Mostra el registre d'ítem simple