On the predictability of mid-term cross-shore profile evolution

Abstract

The aim of the present study is to analyse the mid-term beach profile evolution, considering the hypothesis that the alongshore processes can be neglected for the prediction of the mean profile evolution. To this end, a process-based model for the evolution of the cross-shore profile has been used. The model describes feedbacks between waves, rollers, depth-averaged currents and bed evolution, accounting for the effects of wave skewness and asymmetry on sediment transport. Offshore waves and tides conditions and bathymetric profiles measured at the FRF-USACE Duck are used to simulate a mid-term (72 days) onshore sandbar migration event. The model results agree with observed onshore movement and growth of the sandbar due to the inclusion of the intra-wave oscillatory flow with the skewness and asymmetry effects. The best predictions belongs to the averaging of the modelled evolution of individual cross-shore profiles that is better than the evolution of the mean cross-shore profile since.it takes into account the alongshore variability of the cross-shore profiles. These two methods result on better predictions than the individual profiles during the entire event.