A two years simulation using a real data cellular automaton: A predictive case study with the schistosomiasis expansion process along the coastline of Brazil

Abstract

This work presents a Cellular Automata model to characterize the social and environmental factors which contribute for the analysis of the expansion process of Schistosoma mansoni infection in Pernambuco - Brazil. The model has been experimented with a set of two years real data from a study area at North Coast of Pernambuco – Brazil. The main constraint equations, the modelling process and the results obtained until now with the simulating scenarios generated are presented here. The results identify, as in field works, endemic areas and human risk infection areas. Furthermore, predictive scenarios for a look ahead with a perspective into fifteen years are also presented.