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Model parameter uncertainty estimation based on Bayesian inference for activated sludge model under aerobic conditions: a comparison with a linear theory method
dc.contributor.author | Juznic Zonta, Zivko |
dc.contributor.author | Flotats Ripoll, Xavier |
dc.contributor.author | Magrí Aloy, Albert |
dc.contributor.other | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Projectes d'Enginyeria |
dc.contributor.other | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Agroalimentària i Biotecnologia |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-10-21T11:22:12Z |
dc.date.available | 2011-10-21T11:22:12Z |
dc.date.created | 2011 |
dc.date.issued | 2011 |
dc.identifier.citation | Juznic, Z.; Flotats, X.; Magrí, A. Model parameter uncertainty estimation based on Bayesian inference for activated sludge model under aerobic conditions: a comparison with a linear theory method. A: IWA Symposium on Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment. "8th IWA Symposium on Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment". San Sebastián: Internatinal Water Association (IWA), 2011, p. 428-435. |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/13610 |
dc.description.abstract | The purpose of the study is to apply Bayesian inference in order to estimate the uncertainty in model parameters and predictions for environmental models. The analysis was based on a global optimization routine that finds good initial values for an adaptive Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that finally computes the posterior parameter distribution. A revised activated sludge model was used in order to perform a comparison between Bayesian and linear theory methods. It was observed that the linear theory method systematically underestimates the confidence intervals of the estimated model parameters because the multivariate normality assumption is violated and practical unidentifiability for some parameters occurs. |
dc.format.extent | 8 p. |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.publisher | Internatinal Water Association (IWA) |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Desenvolupament humà::Aigua i sanejament |
dc.subject.lcsh | Water -- Purification |
dc.subject.lcsh | Bayesian statistical decision |
dc.subject.lcsh | Waste products -- Statistics |
dc.subject.lcsh | Markov processes |
dc.subject.other | Activated sludge models (ASM) |
dc.subject.other | Bayesian inference |
dc.subject.other | Global sensitivity analysis |
dc.subject.other | Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) |
dc.subject.other | Uncertainty analysis |
dc.title | Model parameter uncertainty estimation based on Bayesian inference for activated sludge model under aerobic conditions: a comparison with a linear theory method |
dc.type | Conference lecture |
dc.subject.lemac | Aigües residuals -- Depuració |
dc.subject.lemac | Residus -- Estadístiques |
dc.subject.lemac | Estadística bayesiana |
dc.subject.lemac | Markov, Processos de |
dc.contributor.group | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. GREA - Grup de Recerca d'Enginyeria Agro-Ambiental |
dc.rights.access | Open Access |
local.identifier.drac | 5890297 |
dc.description.version | Postprint (published version) |
local.citation.author | Juznic, Z.; Flotats, X.; Magrí, A. |
local.citation.contributor | IWA Symposium on Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment |
local.citation.pubplace | San Sebastián |
local.citation.publicationName | 8th IWA Symposium on Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment |
local.citation.startingPage | 428 |
local.citation.endingPage | 435 |