Modelling of stock control and supply chain for a multi-national company (Hydrasun) in the oil & gas sector

Abstract

For some time, companies have been concerned about their stockholdings due to its great economic impact. The objective is to find a way of optimizing the company's supply chain by analysing the behaviour of its demand. To reach this goal, several demand topologies were created and different time frame groups were analysed, detecting an intermittent demand pattern. An accurate statistical analysis was applied to the demand, although non satisfactory results were found in the behaviour of the future demand. Finally, a comparison between 6 months Moving Average Model used by Hydrasun against six proposed Forecasting Models was performed. An improved model for each time frame group was found, with the Croston’s – 2 parameters performing better for erratic demand (M) and Exponential Smoothing for slow-moving demand (Q, 6m, Y).