A multi-disciplinary approach to assess the impact of global climate change on infrastructure in cold regions

Abstract

Imperial College London is researching with BP some potential impacts of future climate change. BP has a significant number of facilities in cold high-latitude regions, where global climate models predict significant rises in air and ground surface temperature. This could impact on the state and extent of permafrost, potentially posing risks to facilities, infrastructure, and operations (ACIA 2005). The paper reviews the research, focusing on an exemplar study region in eastern Siberia. The key elements included: (1) Developing an approach to provide a best estimate of future climate change. (2) An engineering geological appraisal of the ground conditions in the study region. (3) Performing a parametric study of geothermal conditions in the study region using finite element thermal analyses. (4) Developing a Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical modeling approach for assessment of climate change impact on specific engineering facilities. (5) Developing a methodology for incorporating potential climate change considerations into engineering decision-making and design.