Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
Visualitza/Obre
Barrera-Escoda, A. Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes ....pdf (810,0Kb) (Accés restringit)
Sol·licita una còpia a l'autor
Què és aquest botó?
Aquest botó permet demanar una còpia d'un document restringit a l'autor. Es mostra quan:
- Disposem del correu electrònic de l'autor
- El document té una mida inferior a 20 Mb
- Es tracta d'un document d'accés restringit per decisió de l'autor o d'un document d'accés restringit per política de l'editorial
Cita com:
hdl:2117/26803
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2014-02-01
Condicions d'accésAccés restringit per política de l'editorial
Tots els drets reservats. Aquesta obra està protegida pels drets de propietat intel·lectual i
industrial corresponents. Sense perjudici de les exempcions legals existents, queda prohibida la seva
reproducció, distribució, comunicació pública o transformació sense l'autorització del titular dels drets
Abstract
The North Western Mediterranean basin (NWMB) is characterised by a highly complex topography and an important variability of temperature and precipitation patterns. Downscaling techniques are required to capture these features, identify the most vulnerable areas to extreme changes and help decision makers to design strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A Regional Climate Model, WRF-ARW, is used to downscale the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM General Circulation Model results with high resolution (10 km), considering three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for 2001-2050. Model skills to reproduce observed extremes are assessed for a control period, 1971-2000, using the ERA40 reanalysis to drive the WRF-ARW simulations. A representative set of indices for temperature and precipitation extremes is projected. The modelling system correctly reproduces amplitude and frequency of extremes and provides a high degree of detail on variability over neighbouring areas. However, it tends to overestimate the persistence of wet events and consequently slightly underestimate the length of dry periods. Drier and hotter conditions are generally projected for the NWMB, with significant increases in the duration of droughts and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The projected increase in the number of tropical nights and extreme temperatures could have a negative effect on human health and comfort conditions. Simulations allow defining specifically vulnerable areas, such as the Ebro Valley or the Pyrenees, and foreseeing impacts on socio-economic activities in the region
CitacióBarrera, A. [et al.]. Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050). "Climatic change", 01 Febrer 2014, vol. 122, núm. 4, p. 567-582.
ISSN0165-0009
Fitxers | Descripció | Mida | Format | Visualitza |
---|---|---|---|---|
Barrera-Escoda, ... ipitation extremes ....pdf | 810,0Kb | Accés restringit |