Future scenario simulations of wave climate in the NW Mediterranean sea

Abstract

In this study, 20-year wave climate simulations (1991-2010 and 2081-2100) were performed and analysed in the NW Mediterranean with a fine resolution of 1/8º. The forcing wind was obtained from the ENSEMBLES project, including 3-hourly resolution, daily mean and maximum winds. The validation of the reference situation was done by comparing the probability density function of the datasets. It showed a reasonable agreement between results from 3-hourly winds and buoy data and between results from daily mean wind and wave hindcast data, although the spreading of the distribution is underestimated and some spatial discrepancies were found. The general tendency of the mean significant wave height is to decrease with the exception of the Northern Catalan coast for which no significant variation was detected. A seasonal analysis revealed a change in the annual pattern. During spring and summer the mean significant wave height tends to increase in some areas whereas milder winter and autumn periods are expected. The analysis of the 95% cumulative significant wave height showed similar results but accentuated changes were found.