Comprehensive approach for probabilistic seismic risk assessment: applications for risk reduction and financing

Abstract

Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to hazard events creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. A probabilistic risk evaluation model has been developed to evaluate, building by building, the probabilistic losses of different portfolios of exposed elements. It has been useful to evaluate the fiscal contingency liabilities of the government and to build an optimal structure for risk transfer and retention. In addition, an innovative insurance mechanism has been implemented for private housing, using the estate-tax payment and covering the all low-income homeowners through cross subsidies. This model allows the evaluation of the exceedance probability curve of cost-benefit ratio, providing an innovative tool for decision makers to analyze the net benefits of the risk mitigation strategies, such as building retrofitting of schools and hospitals. Lastly, this model is the base for the earthquake loss scenarios for emergency response planning and for the holistic evaluation of disaster risk based on indicators that facilitates the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision-making. This catastrophic risk model is the base of the Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA), used in Colombia, Mexico, Central America and Spain, and is a potential contribution for the future development of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM).