Comprehensive approach for probabilistic risk assessment (CAPRA): international initiative for disaster risk management effectiveness

Abstract

Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for the evaluation and communication of risk at various territorial levels. This model allows the evaluation of probabilistic losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the exceedance probability curve, expected annual loss and probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard/risk analyses. The platform is conceptually oriented to facilitate decision making; using CAPRA is possible to design risk transfer instruments, the evaluation of probabilistic cost-benefit ratio, providing an innovative tool for decision makers to analyze the net benefits of the risk mitigation strategies, such as building retrofitting. This model is useful for land use planning, loss scenarios for emergency response, early warning, on-line loss assessment mechanisms, and for the holistic evaluation of disaster risk based on indicators that facilitates the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision-making. CAPRA has been used in Colombia, Mexico, Central American countries and Spain, and it is a potential contribution for the development of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Examples of application of the model in the different countries, descriptions of the wiki and visualization tools available are made to illustrate the capabilities of this innovative open architecture ad open source platform using as example earthquakes, nevertheless similar application can be made for hurricanes, floods, landslides and volcanoes.